CRE

From the Bend Bulletin:
The vacancy rate in Bend’s office market more than doubled from third quarter 2007 to third quarter 2008, to 17.1 percent — an amount of space that would take more than four years to lease at the current rental pace, according to a local survey.The vacancy rate is the highest in at […]

From the Oregonian:
Portland’s commercial real estate market had largely dodged the residential market’s swoon.But the region’s continuing housing slide, the nationwide credit crisis and a slowing economy appear to be eating away at the office and retail real estate markets.“The economy has finally caught up with the office market,” said Patricia Raicht, vice president at […]

From the Columbian:
Vancouver-based Riverview Bancorp Inc. on Tuesday reported a 72 percent drop in its first-quarter net income because of expected losses from unpaid loans.In the three months ending June 30, the share of non-performing assets, or unpaid loans, on Riverview’s books grew more than tenfold from a year earlier, to $23.6 million, or 2.67 […]

Has the Commercial Real Estate slowdown hit Oregon?
From the Portland Business Journal:
Oregon’s retail and restaurant industry offers an odd combination: lots of closures but solid employment figures.According to the Oregon Employment Department, 199,300 Oregonians worked in retail in April, about 3,500 more than a year ago. The sector is growing at a rate of about […]

From the Bend Bulletin:
Central Oregon’s real estate market has cooled, but it won’t likely reach the depths of 1986, according to one longtime builder who says a diverse approach will steer his company through the slowdown.That’s when the city of Redmond issued only a handful of commercial and residential building permits throughout the entire year, […]

From the Bend Bulletin:
When Chemica Technologies, a Bend-based biotech research firm, pulled up stakes and moved to Portland last year, the managers at Grace Bio-Labs didn’t hesitate.Grace, a maker of patented labware for the molecular study of cells, was about to burst out of its space on Empire Avenue, Business Development Director Michelle Carney said. […]

As if the housing slump wasn’t enough of a blow to Bend now commercial real estate takes a hit.
From the Bend Bulletin:
REDMOND — A string of new buildings, some empty and others half-filled, line this city’s light-industrial corridor — a reflection of what happens when a slowing economy collides with too much speculative construction, according […]

Investment slumps correlate very well with recessions. The first graph shows the change in real GDP and Private Fixed Investment over the preceding four quarters, shaded areas are recessions. (Source: BEA Table 1.1.1) (note these are year-over-year changes, not quarter-by-quarter).
Click on graph for larger image.
Some observations:
1) Since 1948, private fixed investment has fallen during […]

From the WSJ: Office Vacancy Rate Rises For First Time in 4 Years. A few statistics from the article based on 79 metro markets:
The office vacancy rate rose to 12.6% from 12.5% in Q3.
Net absorption was slightly below 4.4 million square feet in Q4, compared to 16.2 million square feet in Q3.
19 million square feet […]

From the NY Times: Harry Macklowe’s $6.4 Billion Bill.
This is a story we’ve been following because it appears Macklowe bought at the top, and he has a large bill coming due next month for a highly leveraged transaction:
[Macklowe] has a $6.4 billion debt payment coming due next month in connection with his purchase of seven […]