Scary math: More homes, fewer buyers可怕的數學：更多的家園，少買家
Monday, March 19th, 2007 週一， 2007年3月19日The problem with subprime lenders means there will be more homes in an over-supplied market and not as many people who can step in to make purchases.問題與次級貸款是指將有更多的家園在過度供應市場，而不是很多人誰可以一步，使購買。
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer由本港就業輔導組克里斯蒂， cnnmoney.com工作人員的作家
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Subprime lenders are already getting crushed, but the impact rising mortgage delinquencies will have on home prices overall is still an open question.紐約（ cnnmoney.com ） -次級貸款已經獲得粉碎，但上升的影響，按揭貸款拖欠將會對房價整體仍是一個未決問題。
At a minimum, it means financing is drying up for those with less-than-perfect credit and that spells fewer home buyers.在最低限度，這意味著融資是乾涸，對於那些與低於完善信貸和闡明少，置業人士的負擔。
And foreclosed properties will add supply to a housing market that already has too much.和在外性能將增加供應的房屋市場已有太多。
“It’s going to be a really big deal,” says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “這將是一個真正的大不了，說： ”院長貝克，合作，中心主任，經濟和政策研究。
“[National] inventory is 20 percent higher than last year, vacancy rates have soared and prices are down about 3 percent,” he says. “ [國家]庫存是20 ％ ，高於去年的空置率有上升和價格下降了3 ％左右， ”他說。 “Now, with the tightening of credit, I don’t see how prices don’t fall another 5, 6 or 7 percent.” “現在，隨著收緊信用卡，我看不出如何的價格不屬於另一個第5 ，第6或7 ％ 。 ”
The tightening of credit could take as many as one million buyers out of the market, says Baker, citing Bear Stearns research.收緊信貸可以採取多達百萬買家退出市場，說貝克為由，熊士坦研究。 “Even if you cut that in half, say to 400,000 or 500,000, that’s huge.” “即使你認為，削減了一半，說： 400000或500000 ，即龐大的” 。
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, is also concerned.馬克贊迪，首席經濟學家穆迪的economy.com ，亦關注。 “I think the subprime problems will take housing activity to a whole other level,” he says. “我認為，次級的問題，將採取房屋的活動，以整體的其他層面， ”他說。
Zandi is projecting a doubling of subprime defaults this year to 800,000.贊迪預測增加一倍，次級預設今年800000 。 “Those homes will go on the market at a discount and will weigh on the market,” he says. “這些家將繼續在市場上的折扣，並會權衡對市場， ”他說。 He also believes that 500,000 fewer Americans will be able to obtain financing because of the tighter standards.他同時認為，少了50.0萬美國人將能夠獲得融資，因為更嚴格的標準。
All that has led Zandi to alter his projection of a 3 percent decline in housing prices this year to a mid-single digit decline.所有這導致了贊迪，以改變他的預測， 1 3 ％下降，房屋價格在今年1月中單位數字跌幅。 The hardest hit areas, which he thinks will be Arizona, Nevada, parts of California and Florida, will absorb high single digit or even double-digit punches.最難的受災最嚴重的地區，他認為將是亞利桑那州，內華達州，部分加利福尼亞州和佛羅里達州，會吸納高單位數字或什至雙位數字的重拳。
Not everyone paints as bleak a picture.不是每個人都油漆作為暗淡的一張圖片。 “We don’t know how many subprime mortgage holders will actually default,” says Christopher Mayer, an economist at Columbia University. “我們不知道有多少次級按揭持有人將其實默認情況下，說： ”克里斯托弗邁耶，一位經濟學家在哥倫比亞大學。 “Banks are working with borrowers [so they can keep their homes]. “銀行與借款人的工作[ ，使他們能夠保持自己的家園] 。 Plus, there’s plenty of liquidity around for people looking for mortgage loans.”再加上，有各種各樣的流動資金周圍的人在尋找按揭貸款“ 。
That’s not to say he sees everything as hunkey-dorey.這並不是說他看到的一切作為hunkey - dorey 。 Mayer thinks values in speculative markets had gotten way ahead of fundamentals and that weak local economies in the Midwest will depress values there.邁耶認為，價值觀，在投機性市場已得到了前進的道路上的基礎和薄弱地方經濟在中西部地區將有壓抑的價值觀。
The extent of the subprime delinquency problem is disputed.程度的次級拖欠問題是有爭議的。 According to a report from the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL), about 1 in 5 of the subprime loans written in the past two years will go into default, costing 1.1 million their homes and unleashing a flood of foreclosed homes on the market.據報導，由中心負責貸款（ CRL ） ，那麼約1 5的次級貸款的書面在過去兩年將進入默認情況下，耗資110.0萬自己的家園和解放洪水的在外的家園市場。
But Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, thinks CRL is overly pessimistic, noting that defaults for subprime mortgages have never exceeded 10 percent in any given year.但道格鄧肯，首席經濟學家，美國抵押貸款銀行協會認為， CRL是過於悲觀，注意到默認為次級抵押貸款從未超過10 ％ ，在任何一年。
And he argues that most of the loans written before mid-2005 are unlikely to fail because they are already out of the danger zone - they’ve either reset with their borrowers continuing to pay them off or the increased housing values that accompanied the boom have boosted home equity enough so that owners have comfortable cushions.他認為，大部分貸款的書面前，在2005年年中是不可能失敗，因為他們已經走出危險區-他們已經不是重置與借款人繼續支付將它們趕走，或增加房屋的價值觀念，伴隨著蓬勃發展有提高房屋淨值足以使業主有舒適的座墊。
More significant than defaults may be the impact of credit tightening.更重要的，比默認可能的影響，信貸緊縮。
“Banks have become much more cautious. “銀行已變得更為謹慎。 Lenders are tightening, not just subprimes, but Alt-As (not quite prime) loans and primes as well,” says Ellen Bitton, founder of the Park Avenue Mortgage Group.貸款收緊，而不只是subprimes ，但按Alt - （不太總理）貸款和素以及，說： “埃倫bitton ，創始人之一，在Park Avenue按揭組。
Lawrence Yun, an economist with the National Association of Realtors, which tends to have an optimistic view of home markets, is projecting the number of potential homebuyers unable to obtain financing because of the subprime crisis will average about 20,000 a quarter.勞倫斯雲，經濟學家與全國房地產經紀人協會，這往往有一個樂觀的看法，家居市場，是預測一些潛在的置業者無法獲得融資，因為該次級危機將平均約為2.0萬的四分之一。
Defaults, he believes, will come to perhaps one-half of one percent of mortgage holders, perhaps 200,000 homeowners.默認，他認為，將來，也許一，一半以上的1 ％的按揭貸款持有人，或許200000業主。 NAR’s position is that the impact on prices will be only slight. NAR ）的立場是，這種影響對價格將只有輕微。
“Unlike the last housing crisis in the early 1990s, the economy is very sound; people are getting jobs, not losing jobs,” says Yun. “不同於去年的住房危機，在20世紀90年代初，經濟是非常健全，人們越來越職位，而不是失去工作，說： ”雲。
Baker, perhaps the most pessimistic of the prognosticators (he is someone who sold his Washington, DC home a couple of years ago in anticipation of it falling in value), saves most of his concern for the markets that had the most speculation - Las Vegas, Arizona and parts of Florida.貝克，或許最悲觀的prognosticators （他是誰賣給他，華盛頓特區首頁數年前在預期下降，在它的價值） ，節省了他的大部分關注的市場，已是最投機-拉斯維加斯，亞利桑那州和佛羅里達州的部分。 Meanwhile New York, Boston, and coastal California, and even DC should hold up OK, he says.同時新的紐約，波士頓，加利福尼亞州和沿海，甚至直流應舉行了確定，他說。
